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Backtest Overfitting and the Sharpe Ratio: What to Check

Backtest overfitting and the Sharpe ratio: why the ratio is a statistical estimate, how annualizing can mislead, and what SEC marketing rules say.

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The context

Which data and which period were used to estimate the expected return and the volatility?

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Key point

Is the figure shown with any indication that it is an estimate, or as a single number with no context?

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Key point

On December 22, 2020, the SEC adopted amendments under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

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Key point

The amendments reflect developments since the advertising rule's adoption in 1961 and the cash solicitation rule's adoption in 1979.

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Bottom line

The marketing rule contains seven general prohibitions that apply to all advertisements.

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Sources

Educational content, not investment advice. Full article and sources below.

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